Why this book: Selected by my SEAL book club.

Summary in 3 Sentences: A novel in which the author creates a scenario in which the North Koreans unprovoked, like a bolt out of the blue, launch first one, then a second nuclear weapon at the United States.  The novel unfolds minute by minute as the US government infrastructure and leadership deals with the incoming missile and we learn about the process which responds to this most urgent of scenarios. Ultimately the two nuclear missiles hit their targets and we learn about the devastating consequences of a nuclear attack, and about how decisions are made in how the US government and military respond. 

My Impressions:  Not a fun book to read about a potential huge global tragedy.  But it is an important book to read, to raise awareness of the processes and policies our government has in place to prevent, deter, and respond to such an attack.  These processes and infrastructure have been developed and have evolved over the 70 years since the first nuclear weapon was dropped on Hiroshima.  Annie Jacobsen walks us through how the international community has responded to the proliferation of such weapons from initially just the US and Soviet Union, to China, France, the UK, Iran (perhaps,) Pakistan, India, Israel and probably more.

The scenario is pretty simple – North Korea launches a single unprovoked nuclear ICBM at the United States.  Her book progresses minute-by minute after the launch is detected, describinb what response mechanisms are in place, what decisions have to be made and by whom. In this process we learn the roles of the President and his staff, Strategic Command, FEMA, and how within the context of this novel of a hypothetical situation, they respond and the consequences of their decisions.

One of the key points she makes in the novel is that responses have been pre-scripted and have been exercised regularly – except by our political leaders who have never given this much attention. But that is a major liability, since the key decisions must be made by the President with the assistance of his key advisers, most of whom are similarly unprepared.  In this scenario, the President becomes incapacitated and the back up plan falls into place, which leads to more confusion. 

We also learn about the power and devastating consequences of a thermal nuclear weapon – many times the explosive and destructive power of the atomic bombs we dropped on Japan. Especially we learn of the exponentially devastating impact of a nuclear attack on a nuclear power plant – in this scenario, the North Koreans do indeed launch a second strike on the nuclear power plant in Diablo Canyon in Southern California and we learn how this is indeed a double whammy – with significantly worse outcomes than a nuclear weapon alone.  And we learn about the inadequacy of our ability to intercept incoming ICBMs traveling well past the speed of sound through space before entering our atmosphere over our country.

We learn about the horrifying results of a nuclear strike, on the civilization and people receiving it.  The suffering would be incalculable and unimaginable, the living would envy the dead, as devastating fireballs, accentuated by huge winds would engulf the area around the strike for many miles, followed by radiation poisoning of all surviving living things – plants, animals, and humans.  

We learn about how the US would respond to a nuclear attack with a counter attack, how that would be calculated, and the role of our Nuclear Triad – ground launched, air launched, and submarine launched nuclear missiles, always on alert, always ready to respond and be launched on very short notice.

The novel progresses minute by minute.  As the US responds, we see how Russia might respond, how misunderstandings and miscommunications could lead them to believe our  response to North Korea, missiles coming over the north pole, could be misconstrued to be coming to Russia, and how they might respond.

In the end her message is how any use of a nuclear weapon by a deranged leader like Kim Jung Un, could escalate and cascade into precipitating nuclear armageddon and nuclear winter for the entire northern hemisphere, leading to the deaths of billions of people.

Annie Jacobsen interviews scores of experts and former political and military leaders and defense intellectuals to substantiate her case and to provide credibility to her scenario.  She has clearly done her research in writing this novel. 

However, in preparation for a discussion of this book by the SEAL book club, I listened to a podcast entitled “Nuclear War, an Implausible Scenario” run by the National Institute for Deterrence Studies.   (https://youtu.be/JSg8Sd-g0AI?si=J_X_0vMFBvrD4AU6)   In this podcast several “experts” in the world of nuclear deterrence disagree with some of Annie Jacobsen’s assumptions. Most notably they argue that it is implausible that Russia and China would not detect this launch by North Korea, and would not be in immediate contact with each other and the US. They also argue that total escalation to overwhelming response is also not necessarily realistic.  They argue that limited response with Tactical Nuclear weapons is also an available option, which she doesn’t address. They also argue that in her scenario, which almost automatically goes from one or two nuclear missiles launched against the US to overwhelming responses, launching entire nuclear arsenals by both Russia and US is unnecessarily excessive and (they argue) designed to overly dramatize the negatives of the nuclear option. She doesn’t offer any alternative preventative solutions to the reality that Russia and the US (and China) possess these nuclear arsenals. 

This book, along with the movie House of Dynamite have served to raise awareness of the threat of nuclear war which could essentially lead to the end of civilization as we know it. For that reason alone, it is worth reading.  After finishing this book, realizing that we all live under a proverbial sword of Damocles, it is time to smell the roses, and appreciate the simple pleasures of life as we now know it.  It is all pretty fragile.